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Featured Article: A Shaky Start to September

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A Shaky Start to September

Domestic markets fell last week due to negative trade news and declining tech stocks, with the S&P 500 and Dow both breaking their multi-week winning streaks. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ posted losses for 4 days in a row for the first time since April and experienced its worst September start since 2008. Overall, the S&P 500 lost 1.03%, the Dow dropped 0.19%, and the NASDAQ gave back 2.55% for the week. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE also declined, losing 2.89%.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which can help gauge market fears, increased 15.8% last week. This increase matches what often occurs during September, when volatility returns after waning during the summer months. In fact, since 2007, volatility has been above average in September.

Of course, the change from one month or season to another isn’t enough to trigger market losses and rising volatility.

weekly-update-september-4-2018-markets-up-again

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Featured Article: Markets Up Again

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Markets Up Again

Trade continued to dominate the news last week and cause market volatility as investors monitored discussions of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and tension with China. While Mexico and the U.S. reached a new trade deal early in the week, talks with Canada stalled on Friday, August 31. Reports also came out that President Trump may be adding tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese goods.

Domestic markets increased for the week and ended August in positive territory. The S&P 500 and Dow each had their best August since 2014—while the NASDAQ’s 5.7% growth was its best performance for the month since 2000. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 reached a new record high. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.93%, the Dow added 0.68%, and the NASDAQ increased 2.06%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE joined the growth, adding 0.26%.

Key Data from Last Week
Although trade might have dominated headlines, last week provided a number of informative economic updates, including:

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Featured Article: The Bull Market Continues

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The Bull Market Continues

Last week marked a noteworthy milestone in our economy: On Wednesday, August 22, the bull market entered its 3,453rd day, the longest such run in U.S. history. In the past 9 plus years, domestic indexes have come quite a way since the dark days of the financial crisis. The S&P 500 is now more than 4 times the level that it was when the bull market began on March 9, 2009.

In fact, both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed last week with new record highs. The S&P 500 added 0.86%, the Dow increased 0.47%%, and the NASDAQ gained 1.66%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE also grew, increasing 1.52% for the week.

This domestic growth occurred against a backdrop of geopolitical events. Investors considered new tariffs between China and the U.S., as well as legal developments potentially related to President Trump. However, economic updates seemed to hold the most sway over market performance last week.

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Featured Article: Trade & Turkey Drive Markets

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Trade & Turkey Drive Markets

Challenges in emerging markets affected both U.S. and global stock performance last week, with the S&P 500 experiencing several down days. By market close on Friday, however, two of the three major domestics posted gains for the week. The S&P 500 added 0.59%, the Dow increased 1.41%, and the NASDAQ lost 0.29%. Meanwhile, the MSCI EAFE international stocks slipped 1.18%.

As several reports deepened our understanding of the economy’s underlying health, investors balanced the news with updates on Turkey and trade disputes. Here are some key highlights of the various developments:

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Featured Article: Mixed Results as Turkey Stumbles

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Mixed Results as Turkey Stumbles

Stocks ended the week in mixed territory as trouble with Turkey’s currency affected U.S. equity performance on Friday, August 10. For the week, the S&P lost 0.25%, the Dow declined 0.59%, and the NASDAQ increased 0.35%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE stumbled, giving back 1.57%.

Although last week brought relatively few economic updates, we did learn that the labor market continues to improve and consumer prices are on the rise. While this news may have affected market performance, the challenges facing Turkey’s economy had an outsize impact on global stocks.

What happened to the Turkish lira?
The Turkish lira dropped 14% to 6.46 per dollar, the weakest on record with the largest drop in more than 17 years. The lira ended the week at a record low against the U.S. dollar. Tension between the U.S. and Turkey played a part in the decline as President Trump tweeted plans to double tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum imports.

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Featured Article: Stocks Up as Data Comes In

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Stocks Up as Data Comes In

Domestic markets ended last week in positive territory, as the S&P gained 0.76%, the Dow was up 0.05%, and the NASDAQ increased 0.96%. This performance marked the 5th week in a row that the S&P 500 and Dow posted gains. Meanwhile, international stocks in the MSCI EAFE stumbled, losing 1.47% for the week.

Once again, trade and corporate earnings were in the news last week. We learned that the U.S. is considering increasing tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports. In response, China announced their own tariffs ranging from 5%–25% on $60 billion of U.S. products.

Corporate earnings season also continued, and so far, more than 78% of S&P 500 companies have beaten estimates. If the trend holds, the 2nd quarter will likely average more than 20% growth in earnings per share. Companies have also detailed positive perspectives for the rest of 2018, showing that this strong corporate performance should continue.

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Featured Article: Earnings Season Continues

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Earnings Season Continues

On Friday, July 20, stocks lost a small amount of ground after President Trump escalated his threats of increasing tariffs on China. However, strong quarterly earnings reports from several large companies helped provide balance in the markets.

For the week, domestic indexes experienced little movement, as the S&P gained 0.02%, the Dow was up 0.15%, and the NASDAQ dropped 0.07%.

International stocks in the MSCI EAFE had slightly more change, with a 0.63% gain.

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Featured Article: Special Report: Quarterly Update

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Special Report: Quarterly Update

Last week, trade tensions with China lessened somewhat, while the 2nd quarter corporate earnings season started with mixed results. Against this backdrop, domestic stocks experienced sizable growth.

By market’s close on Friday, July 13, the S&P 500 was above 2,800 for the first time since February 1. Meanwhile, the Dow was above 25,000, and the NASDAQ had hit a new record. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.50%, the Dow added 2.30%, and the NASDAQ was up 1.79%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE increased as well by 0.16%.

We are now two weeks into July, which means the 1st half of 2018 is behind us. As we analyze what may be ahead in the markets, we’ll also strive to understand what has happened so far this year.

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Featured Article: Jobs Push Stocks Up

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Jobs Push Stocks Up

Domestic stocks only traded for 4 days last week, due to the Independence Day holiday. In that time, all 3 major domestic indexes posted positive results for the week. The S&P 500 added 1.52%, the Dow gained 0.76%, and the NASDAQ increased 2.37%. International stocks in the MSCI EAFE were up as well by 0.56%.

Once again, trade and tariffs were a major topic on many people’s minds. On Friday, July 6, the U.S. and China placed $34 billion of duties on each other’s imports.

However, instead of focusing on the trade-war escalation, another topic captured many investors’ attention: the latest jobs report.

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Featured Article: Trade and Tariffs Rattle Markets

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Trade and Tariffs Rattle Markets

International trade concerns continue to create uncertainty in markets around the world. Despite the markets’ slight rises on Friday, June 29, they recorded losses for the week. The S&P 500 fell 1.33%, the Dow gave back 1.26%, and the NASDAQ dropped 2.37%. Internationally, the MSCI EAFE declined 1.10%.

Friday also marked Q2’s last trading day. The U.S. economy remains strong thanks to low unemployment numbers and strong corporate earnings. Meanwhile, on Thursday, the Fed announced that all, but one bank passed stress tests evaluating their ability to weather a financial downturn.

This week, we’ll address President Trump’s proposed tariffs on international imports and their effect on stock performance.