Weekly Update: May 12, 2025 | Fed Talk Calms Volatility for the Week

Stocks were mixed last week as volatility dropped despite ongoing trade concerns and the Federal Reserve’s update on short-term rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.16 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.47 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.27 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.37 percent.1,2

Stocks Go Sideways

Stocks dropped on Monday, ending the S&P 500’s 9-day winning streak as the trade anxiety weighed on investors.3,4

Sentiment picked up midweek, however. In a widely expected move, the Fed held short-term interest rates steady but warned of lingering uncertainty around tariffs’ effects on inflation and unemployment.5,6

On Thursday, the U.S.-U.K. trade deal sparked a slight rally, but stocks flattened as the week ended. Investors appeared to be risk-averse with U.S.-China trade talks scheduled for the weekend.7


Market Insights

Source: YCharts.com, May 10, 2025. Weekly performance is measured from Monday, May 5, to Friday, May 9. TR = total return for the index, which includes any dividends as well as any other cash distributions during the period. Treasury note yield is expressed in basis points.

The Fed Fans Out

The Federal Reserve wanted to get its message out last week. Within 48 hours of the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, nearly every Fed governor gave a solo speech or discussed the decision on a panel.

One Fed official spoke about the benefits of long-term stability from an independent Fed. At the same time, another said the Fed was paying close attention to what consumers did—and not just what they said, suggesting that flagging consumer sentiment didn’t necessarily mean a slowdown in spending.7

The Fed seemed to focus on managing expectations. Perhaps more importantly, Fed officials spoke from a coordinated playbook, possibly designed to help settle financial markets.

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Federal Budget.

Tuesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.

Wednesday: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks.

Thursday: Retail Sales. Jobless Claims (weekly). Producer Price Index (PPI). Industrial Production. Business Inventories. Home Builder Confidence Index.

Friday: Import Price Index. Housing Starts. Building Permits. Consumer Sentiment.

Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; May 9, 2025
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Wednesday: Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

Thursday: Walmart Inc. (WMT), Deere & Company (DE), Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT), NetEase, Inc. (NTES)

Source: Zacks, May 9, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

SFG News & Events

Thank you to all of the amazing mothers who fill our lives with love, strength, and unwavering support. You make life brighter, today and everyday.

We hope everyone had a great Mother’s Day weekend this past weekend! 💐

Food for Thought

“Innovation is saying ‘no’ to 1,000 things.”

Steve Jobs

Tax Tip

Don’t Forget to Take Advantage of the Work Opportunity Tax Credit

The work opportunity tax credit is a federal tax credit for business owners who have hired individuals from target groups that would have otherwise faced significant barriers when looking for a job. Some target groups include summer youth employees, those receiving Supplemental Security Income, or qualified long-term unemployment recipients. There are ten targeted groups in total.

The work opportunity tax credit equals 40% of up to $6,000 in wages paid or incurred, with a maximum credit of $2,400. The WOTC may consider up to $24,000 in wages for certain qualified veteran-targeted groups. The restrictions are on the IRS website.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional. 

Tip adapted from IRS8

Healthy Living Tip

Stay Safe This Summer With These Open Water Safety Tips

Summer is the perfect time to spend at the beach, lake, or river. But unfortunately, these natural bodies of water can also be hazardous if you don’t know how to stay safe. Here are some tips to help you and your family stay safe in the water this summer:

  • Only swim in the designated swimming area. Take note of flags and buoys that mark where you can and can’t swim.
     
  • When in doubt, get out! If something doesn’t feel suitable, such as a current picking up, it’s better to use caution and get out.
  • Know the conditions before you swim. The more you know about water levels, temperature, and current, the better.
  • Never swim alone when in open water. Always swim with a buddy who can look out for you, and you can look out for them.

Tip adapted from National Drowning Prevention Alliance9

 Weekly Riddle

What always shows up in the middle of March and the middle of April?

Last week’s riddle: A word appears, and six letters it contains. Subtract only one, then twelve remains. What is this word?
Answer: Dozens.

Photo of the Week

Golden Temple
Laojunshan, Luoyang, China

Footnotes and Sources

1. The Wall Street Journal, May 9, 2025

2. Investing.com, May 9, 2025

3. CNBC.com, May 5, 2025

4. CNBC.com, May 6, 2025

5. The Wall Street Journal, May 7, 2025

6. CNBC.com, May 8, 2025

7. The Wall Street Journal, May 9, 2025

8. IRS.gov, November 11, 2024

9. NDPA.org, December 12, 2024

Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.

The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.

The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.

Please consult your financial professional for additional information.

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with Stuart Financial Group, J.W. Cole Advisors, Inc., nor state or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

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